Quiet morning. M365 reports a new inbox rule.
A user in Finance just added an inbox rule that auto-forwards anything matching “invoice” or “wire” to an external address. M365 surfaces it as a low-severity audit event. The engine stays at Steady Watch — most rules are legitimate. Warden picks it up and starts the triage clock.
{"event":"InboxRule","user":"k.morris@acme.com","conditions":["subject:invoice","subject:wire"],"action":"forwardTo:exfil@protonmail.com","CreationTime":"2026-05-26T09:14:03Z"} Engine correlates: same user, recent Avanan phish flag.
The engine's correlation layer matches the inbox rule against 24-hour threat-intel context. 18 hours ago, Avanan quarantined a spear-phish targeting the same user — same infrastructure cluster, plausible kill-chain assembly. Warden raises the signal weight; the rule is no longer routine.
{"avanan":"phish_quarantine","recipient":"k.morris@acme.com","sender":"finance@acme-payroll[.]co","sha256":"4f1c…d92e","detected":"2026-05-25T15:08:11Z"} Wazuh: same endpoint ran unusual PowerShell five minutes ago.
Wazuh fires on the endpoint k.morris was using. Obfuscated PowerShell — encoded payload, parent process is Outlook. Multi-substrate correlation + EDR fire crosses the engine's posture-scorer threshold. The CYCON dial moves to 4 automatically; no operator click required. Audit chain stamps the transition as SYSTEM-initiated. Notification routing and Trust Ceiling defaults shift accordingly. This is the engine telling itself it's not Tuesday anymore — and on Free tier just as on Business.
{"wazuh":3304,"rule":"PowerShell encoded command from email client","agent":"WS-FIN-117","parent_image":"OUTLOOK.EXE","cmdline":"powershell -enc YQBhAGEA…","cycon_transition":{"from":5,"to":4,"by":"posture-evaluator-v1","initiator":"SYSTEM","reason":"score=14 · signals=3 · connectors=2 · recommended=CYCON-4"}} UniFi: endpoint is talking to a known C2 IP.
UniFi flow logs show WS-FIN-117 has opened a sustained outbound connection to 185.220.x.x — a Cobalt Strike controller on the latest threat-intel drop. The picture is now end-to-end: phish → execution → C2. The score crosses the CYCON-3 threshold; the engine moves the dial again. Total elapsed: 90 seconds, zero clicks. The case is fully assembled and what happens next depends on tier.
{"unifi":"firewall.flow","src":"10.42.7.117","dst":"185.220.103.7","port":443,"bytes_out":18432,"duration_s":47,"intel":["mandiant.cs","crowdsec.community","cisa.aa24-318a"],"cycon_transition":{"from":4,"to":3,"by":"posture-evaluator-v1","initiator":"SYSTEM","reason":"score=28 · signals=4 · connectors=3 · recommended=CYCON-3"}}